Western Disturbance To Change North India’s Weather; Delhi Faces Severe Pollution As Rain Remains Unlikely

Winter is gradually making its presence felt across northern India, but the weather forecast for the coming days is bringing a mixed picture. A fresh Western Disturbance is approaching the region, raising the possibility of rainfall and snowfall across parts of the western Himalayas. However, residents of Delhi-NCR may have to wait longer for a spell of rain. The national capital is expected to experience largely dry weather until November 8, even as its air quality deteriorates. With several monitoring stations already reporting severe pollution levels, the absence of immediate rainfall could prolong the city's air quality concerns.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a Western Disturbance is currently present as a trough in the middle tropospheric levels, extending approximately along longitude 65°E, north of latitude 30°N. A Western Disturbance is an eastward-moving weather system originating in the Mediterranean region and travelling towards the Indian subcontinent. During winter, these systems are among the primary reasons for rainfall across northwestern India and snowfall in the western Himalayan region.

The approaching system is expected to influence weather conditions across the northern mountain states, with light rainfall and snowfall likely at scattered places in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.

The northern plains, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh, are expected to experience largely dry conditions in the immediate forecast period. There is no significant weather activity expected across northwest India during the week.

Temperatures across the region are also expected to change as winter advances. Delhi-NCR could experience cooler mornings, with shallow fog and mist affecting visibility at isolated places. The IMD's forecast for the capital indicates daytime temperatures largely between 27 degrees Celsius and 29 degrees Celsius and minimum temperatures around 15 degrees Celsius to 17 degrees Celsius through November 7.

Delhi-NCR Unlikely To Receive Rain Before November 8

While the approaching Western Disturbance may bring some weather activity to the Himalayan states, Delhi residents are unlikely to receive immediate relief from the dry conditions. The capital is forecast to experience mainly clear skies, with shallow fog or mist during morning hours on November 5, 6, and 7. The IMD has not issued a weather warning for Delhi during this period.

The bigger concern is the city's deteriorating air quality. Delhi's average Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 372 at 4 am on November 5, placing it in the very poor category. However, several neighbourhoods have already recorded readings in the severe category. Jahangirpuri reported an AQI of 459, while Punjabi Bagh recorded 449. Sector 62 in Noida also reported a reading of 423.

According to the Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi, air quality is expected to remain very poor on November 5, with conditions likely to deteriorate to the severe category on November 6 and 7. The outlook for the following six days also indicates persistently high pollution levels.

Rainfall and stronger winds can help disperse pollutants and improve air quality. However, with no significant rainfall expected over Delhi before November 8, immediate weather-related relief remains unlikely. The extent of any improvement will depend on wind speed, wind direction and atmospheric conditions over the coming days.

For now, the approaching Western Disturbance may bring a change to the Himalayan weather, but Delhi-NCR is likely to contend with dry skies, cooler mornings and another spell of unhealthy air.

(With inputs from various sources)

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